Draft Day’s Hidden Trap: How the Winner’s Curse Skews Teams’ Best Laid Plans

When the Orioles drafted high-school flamethrower Grayson Rodriguez with the 11th pick in 2018, they were buying a future they could only imagine. Last night, that distant bet finally came to a head. With injuries having clouded Rodriguez’s trajectory, Baltimore traded the still–cost-controlled right-hander to the Angels for a single season of Taylor Ward, converting tomorrow’s hope into today’s utility and crystallizing the draft’s enduring tension: how much faith to place in what a teenager might become.

By flipping a once-prized but uncertain future asset for an immediate, short-lived upgrade, the Orioles offered a real-time snapshot of a long-standing friction in draft rooms: how to weigh projected upside against usable, bankable production right now.

Baseball’s amateur draft is nominally designed to resolve that tension. Every summer, 30 clubs take turns selecting the best teenage arms and college bats the country can produce. The worst teams get the best picks, bonuses are governed by slot values, and everyone walks away with a prospect who, at least in the press release, lays out a route to Cooperstown. But beneath the slot-value spreadsheets and bonus-tracker pages lies a less flattering reality – one shaped by runaway optimism, herd behavior, and a phenomenon economists call the winner’s curse.

What makes this dynamic interesting is not that the draft’s rules are irrational. The slot system and bonus pools were introduced to curb overspending. But people aren’t purely rational. Even with guardrails, front offices keep falling for the same behavioral traps auction theorists warn about. Understanding why sets the stage for the economic and behavioral dynamics that follow.

The auction that isn’t an auction

The winner’s curse originated in the 1970s when oil companies noticed that Gulf of Mexico drilling leases tended to deliver poor returns. Petroleum engineers Edward Capen, Robert Clapp and William Campbell found that companies were systematically overpaying because they lacked good information about the leases’ true value. When bidders compete under uncertainty, the company that guesses highest (i.e., most optimistically) wins, and is therefore most likely to have overshot the mark. Behavioral scientists later generalized the idea: in auctions or competitions where all participants value the same asset, the winner is often the one who overestimates its worth the most.

The MLB draft isn’t literally an auction, but it functions like one in several important ways. Teams “bid” on players by spending draft capital (picks) and bonus‑pool money. The pick order is fixed rather than chosen. Slot values serve as bidding chips: clubs can go under slot to save pool money or over slot to woo a player. For example, a team might take a player underslot at No. 5, then use the savings to sign a coveted prep arm overslot in round two. Everyone values a prospect’s future wins above replacement (WAR) differently based on scouting looks, performance data and medical reports. And the uncertainty is extreme: 18‑year‑old arms may need Tommy John surgery tomorrow, while a college hitter’s breakout may vanish under better pitching.

In this world of uncertain talent, the winner’s curse works its mischief. The team that is most bullish on a prospect’s upside will expend the highest pick and largest bonus. If its evaluation is merely average rather than exceptional, it has overpaid relative to the field. That’s the curse: Winning the rights to a player simply because you were the most optimistic. As Capen, Clapp and Campbell observed, the winning bid often exceeds the item’s intrinsic value because the winner overestimates what it is worth. In baseball, overestimation manifests as inflated signing bonuses, lost pool flexibility and, years later, painful retrospective pieces about draft busts.

How MLB’s slot system masks the curse

On paper, MLB’s draft should reduce the risk of overbidding. Since 2012, every pick comes with an assigned slot value and each team receives a fixed bonus pool, turning the draft into something close to a regulated marketplace. In theory, this should limit the runaway optimism that produces the winner’s curse: if the price is pre-set, no one can pay too much.

In practice, slot values function less like fixed prices and more like currency. Teams routinely underslot early picks to bank pool space, then push that saved money toward later targets they believe are undervalued. The results can be dramatic. In 2024, for example, the Reds signed second-rounder Tyson Lewis for $3.05 million—well above his $1.80 million slot—an aggressive overslot bet enabled by savings elsewhere. Moves like this show how fluid the system really is: clubs aren’t bound to slot values so much as they’re choosing where to concentrate their optimism.

This is where intent and bias blur together. Underslot strategies are often framed as rational portfolio management. Trade a bit of surplus on a predictable early pick to take a bigger swing later. But reallocating money doesn’t eliminate the risk of overpaying; it merely shifts that risk deeper into the draft, where uncertainty is even greater. Any overslot deal, whether calculated or impulsive, still hinges on a team’s internal conviction that its evaluation is sharper than the industry’s. And that belief (our read is right, and everyone else is low) is exactly the mindset that gives the winner’s curse room to work.

The slot system, then, doesn’t prevent overbidding. It obscures it. By packaging optimism as strategy and allowing teams to move money around the board, the system encourages clubs to express their highest-variance bets not at the top of the draft, but in the murkier middle rounds, where the gap between a confident projection and a faulty one is widest.

High‑school tools and projectability

Prep players tantalize scouts with raw tools and long developmental runways. Showcase circuits amplify scarcity, persuading teams that a 17‑year‑old’s bat speed or arm strength is rare. When multiple clubs covet the same player, he becomes a classic common‑value asset. Without reliable performance data against top competition, evaluations diverge wildly. The team that dreams the brightest dreams writes the biggest check. The Nationals, for instance, saved money on their first‑round selection and then poured $2.81 million (about $1.7 million over slot) into second‑rounder Luke Dickerson. In winner’s‑curse terms: Differing valuations of a prep prospect mean the highest optimist pays a price that exceeds the player’s expected value.

College arms and the illusion of safety

Conventional wisdom holds that college pitchers are safer than high‑schoolers. Yet pitching is hazardous regardless of age. The epidemic of UCL tears and velocity‑driven development undermines the “floor” teams think they’re buying. The Mets learned this in 2021 when they drafted Kumar Rocker 10th overall. Rocker agreed to a $6 million bonus ($1.26 million over slot) but the club balked at his medicals and declined to sign him. Similarly, in 2014 the Astros selected high‑school phenom Brady Aiken first overall. Team doctors flagged his UCL, and Houston tried to reduce his $6.5 million agreed bonus to $5 million. Negotiations collapsed; the Astros forfeited their top pick and jeopardized an overslot deal with fifth‑rounder Jacob Nix. Aiken later needed Tommy John surgery, leaving Houston without a top pick and with wasted pool money. Here the curse is clear: Believing that college arms are “safe” leads teams to pay a premium, yet the riskiest outcomes often still materialize, leaving the winning bidder holding the bill.

The consensus top‑three problem

Public prospect rankings create a powerful form of social gravity. When every industry board agrees that a handful of players sit atop a class, no general manager wants to be the one who strays. The incentives tilt toward conformity: if the consensus is wrong, failure is shared; if you deviate and miss, the failure is yours alone. That professional asymmetry nudges teams to align their decisions with the crowd rather than with their own models, even when internal data suggests a different course.

Herd behavior thrives in this environment. Instead of treating rankings as noisy signals about uncertain future value, teams sometimes interpret them as confirmation of what “everyone knows.” The draft becomes a sequence of teams reacting to one another’s expectations. And in a market where prospects function as common-value assets – players whose true value is the same for everyone but imperfectly known – this convergence has a predictable side effect. The club sitting at the very top of the board effectively becomes the most optimistic bidder, locked into paying full slot for the industry’s consensus pick whether its internal valuation supports that enthusiasm or not.

Recent drafts illustrate how fragile consensus can be once a single team breaks formation. In 2020, Vanderbilt shortstop Austin Martin was widely projected to go second, yet the Orioles passed on him at No. 2 in favor of Heston Kjerstad in an underslot move. Martin tumbled to fifth. Hours earlier it seemed unthinkable he’d fall out of the top three, a reminder that consensus often reflects shared assumptions more than shared certainty. In 2016 the Phillies took Mickey Moniak first overall partly because he would sign cheaply, not because he was universally graded as the top talent. That move, driven by portfolio calculus rather than pure ranking, exposed how thin the foundation of industry agreement can be.

Case studies: cautionary tales and near misses

To see these dynamics in action, it’s helpful to look at individual drafts. Every year offers its own tragedies and triumphs, but a few names loom large as cautionary tales.

Tyler Kolek, the Marlins’ second overall pick in 2014, embodied the high‑school tools archetype. Miami signed the 102 mph Texan for $6 million, luring him away from a Texas Christian University commitment. Kolek’s elite velocity seduced the Marlins into passing on polished college hitters like Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Nola. Injuries (including Tommy John surgery) and poor command derailed his career; he never advanced beyond Low‑A. The Marlins spent over slot on a lottery ticket and drew a losing number.

In contrast, sometimes players flagged by consensus boards outperform expectations. During the 2024 draft the Angels gave 11th‑round infielder Trey Gregory‑Alford $1.96 million, an overslot bet emblematic of the strategy. Occasionally an undervalued prospect blossoms into a star, but those hits are rare. Survivorship bias tempts teams to overweight the few successes and forget the many misses; the curse raises the cost of failure and makes the rare jackpot seem more alluring than it truly is.

Quantifying the curse: expected value curves

Anecdotes reveal how individual drafts can go wrong, but expected value curves show the structural math behind those failures. Analysts have long tried to quantify draft picks by converting future WAR into present dollars and then subtracting the expected signing bonus to estimate surplus value. A FanGraphs study, for example, smoothed values across picks and found that the first overall selection in 2012 carried roughly $45.5 million in present value, while pick 38 was worth about $8.1 million. The shape of the curve is steep at the top and then levels into a gradual decline, with the sharpest drop occurring within the first half-dozen picks.
These curves matter because they reveal how fast the margin for error disappears. Early selections come with enough expected surplus to absorb some overenthusiasm. But as the draft progresses and intrinsic pick value shrinks, any overslot deal—especially one driven by optimism about projectability—can wipe out what little surplus remains. In other words, the further a team moves down the board, the less room it has to survive being the most optimistic evaluator in the room. The winner’s curse becomes more punitive precisely where teams often feel emboldened to “let it eat” with saved bonus pool money.

Expected value curves don’t tell teams whom to draft, but they do expose the economic terrain: a landscape where optimism grows costlier with every pick, and where the gap between disciplined valuation and wishful thinking may be measured in millions.

Why smart people still fall for it

Two behavioral forces help explain why front offices repeatedly succumb to the winner’s curse: optimism bias and herd behavior.

Optimism bias leads scouts and executives to overestimate upside while downplaying risks. Prospects’ ceilings loom larger than their floors, and the allure of potential stardom encourages overslot offers that seem rational in the moment. Layered atop the draft’s inherent uncertainty, this bias inflates valuations and makes risky bets appear like bargains.

Herd behavior compounds the effect. When draft boards, public rankings, and rival teams coalesce around the same players, deviating from consensus can feel professionally costly. Executives often align with the crowd because failing conventionally is safer than failing unconventionally. In a market of common-value assets, where all teams ultimately value the same underlying talent, this conformity can transform cautious optimism into overpayment.

Together, optimism and herd mentality create a self-reinforcing loop: scouts imagine best-case scenarios, the market validates them, and teams overcommit. The result is a repeated pattern of overslot deals and missed surplus, classic symptoms of the winner’s curse.

How teams can break the curse

Economists Capen, Clapp and Campbell recommended that bidders counteract the winner’s curse by adjusting for uncertainty and the number of competitors. Baseball has analogous tools:

Bayesian updating and analytics: Teams can build probabilistic models that integrate scouting, performance data and injury risk, then adjust projections downward to account for optimism bias. FanGraphs’ draft‑value curves show that adjusting for uncertainty reduces expected surplus; teams should bid (i.e., draft) accordingly.
Independent draft boards: Successful organizations construct their own rankings rather than parroting industry consensus. The Orioles and Dodgers are reputed for blending scouting with proprietary analytics and sticking to their boards. The Guardians’ “pitching factory,” with nine of their top 30 prospects being pitchers, exemplifies disciplined development. By weighting internal information more heavily than rumor velocity, such teams reduce the risk of overpaying for consensus darlings.
Portfolio approach: Rather than allocating most of the bonus pool to a single high‑risk pick, some teams diversify by distributing money across multiple selections. Under MLB’s bonus‑pool rules, undersigning early picks and reinvesting savings into later rounds is common. Used judiciously, this can balance risk by spreading bets across several players. But diversification only works if each pick’s expected value exceeds its price—something optimism bias routinely obscures. Without proper valuation, a club simply trades one overslot mistake for several smaller ones. The portfolio approach should therefore be paired with rigorous models and sober assessments.
Better medical forecasting: Many curse‑driven catastrophes stem from hidden injuries. Investing in biomechanics research and injury‑prevention analytics can reduce uncertainty. When the Astros declined to sign Aiken because of UCL concerns, they absorbed short‑term pain but may have avoided a larger long‑term cost.

Conclusion: Accepting uncertainty, embracing humility

The winner’s curse teaches that drafting is less about predicting the future than respecting its unknowability. Clubs fall for upside because they must, and they chase consensus because it feels safer than standing alone. Even so, the teams that navigate the draft best are the ones willing to temper hope with skepticism, to adjust their valuations downward, and to acknowledge just how fragile any projection really is.

Last night, Baltimore provided a case study. By flipping Rodriguez for a single season of Ward, the Orioles traded upside for certainty and long-term hope for short-term clarity. It was a small transaction with a big message: on draft day, as in roster-building more broadly, the smartest teams aren’t the ones that dream the biggest, they’re the ones that know the limits of their dreams.

Player Profile: Chris Downs – LHP, Cal Poly

Chris Downs delivers a pitch in a white Cal Poly uniform.

The primary focus of this blog is evaluating Big West prospects, and some of them can be puzzling to assess. Cal Poly left-hander Christopher Downs is one such case – a 6’7″ southpaw who doesn’t light up the radar gun but offers an intriguing mix of size, extension, and feel for pitching. I wasn’t sure how to evaluate Downs at first. College-level “pitchability lefties” (finesse left-handers who rely on craft and command) often give me pause, yet Downs has just enough raw clay in his build and arsenal that it’s easy to imagine a pro team taking a gamble on him. His fastball only sits in the high-80s (87–89 mph), but with his towering frame and excellent down-mound extension, it plays faster. Meanwhile, he backs it up with a slider that generates swings-and-misses over 40% of the time and a changeup he can rely on to keep hitters off balance. In an era obsessed with velocity, Downs presents a bit of a throwback profile – and one that might just have pro scouts intrigued.

After a modest freshman year in 2024 (2-0, 6.65 ERA over 21⅔ innings), Downs made significant strides as a sophomore. He transitioned into a key bullpen arm for the Mustangs’ Big West championship team, where he posted a 4.09 ERA and a perfect 6-0 record across 25 appearances. Despite not making any starts, he often worked multiple innings in relief and even earned All-West Coast League honorable mention the previous summer with a 1.59 ERA in collegiate summer ball. By the end of 2025, he had become one of Cal Poly’s most reliable arms, and his Cape Cod League performance this summer (1.83 ERA with Yarmouth-Dennis) further solidified his upward trajectory. There’s a sense that Downs is just scratching the surface of what he could become. If he can build on his momentum with a strong spring, his name will be firmly on the radar when draft time comes around.

Height/Weight: 6’7″, 215 lbs
DOB: July 25, 2005
Bats/Throws: Right/Left

Player Profile

Build: Tall and long-limbed. Downs has an imposing 6’7” frame with a high waist. Though listed around 215–230 lbs, he is more lean than bulky, leaving room to add strength. His height gives him a natural downhill release angle, allowing him to throw on a tough plane to hitters.
Delivery: He stays tall throughout his motion and doesn’t sit deeply into his back leg. His stride is short-to-moderate for someone with his height, and instead of driving his back knee forward, he rotates around a firm front side. That keeps him upright and limits the power contribution from his lower half. Most of his velocity comes from torso rotation and arm speed, rather than a strong kinetic chain from the ground up.
Arm Action: Downs has a loose, whippy arm that comes through from a low three-quarters slot. The arm path is relatively compact in the back — he doesn’t have a long, sweeping arm swing — and he accelerates quickly through release. His hand pronates naturally after release, giving him some finish and helping sell his off-speed stuff.

Pitch Arsenal

Fastball: Downs’ fastball typically sits in the 86-89 mph range, topping out around 90 mph. While that velocity is not overwhelming, the pitch plays up thanks to his extension and angle. Coming from his 6’7” frame and whippy low-three-quarters release, the fastball gets on hitters with a downhill plane and some natural run. He spots the pitch well to both sides of the plate and isn’t afraid to challenge hitters inside. Given his height and long arms, hitters often have difficulty picking up the ball, helping the heater miss barrels even without premium velocity. If Downs can add a tick or two of velocity in the future (more on that below), his fastball could become a solid-average offering. As it stands, it’s an adequately effective pitch that he uses to set up his off-speed stuff.

Slider: The slider is Downs’ most dangerous weapon. Thrown in the upper-70s to low-80s, it’s a two-plane breaking ball that he tunnels well off his fastball. The slider has late bite, generating a lot of ugly swings. In fact, Downs’ slider produced a whiff rate north of 40%, making it a bona fide swing-and-miss pitch for him. He has confidence throwing it in any count – to back-foot it against righties or sweep it away from lefties – and it often functions as his putaway pitch. College hitters struggle to make contact with this slider once they are behind in the count. As he faces more advanced competition, the slider projects as at least an above-average offering that could miss bats at the pro level, especially if set up by improved fastball velocity.

Changeup: Downs also features a changeup in the high-70s, which has quietly been a very effective third offering. He maintains good arm speed on the changeup, helping sell it as a fastball before it fades away from right-handed batters. The pitch has mild sink and fade, and he typically uses it to keep righties off balance, often after showing them the fastball. While the changeup is not used as heavily as his slider, it has proven effective in eliciting weak contact and some swing-and-miss. He’s comfortable throwing the changeup for strikes and will use it in off-counts. It gives him a weapon to attack opposite-handed hitters, rounding out a solid three-pitch mix. Downs can throw his fastball, slider, and changeup all from the same arm slot, adding to his deception and making the changeup play well off his heater.

Mechanics and Deception

Mechanically, Chris Downs presents both strengths and opportunities for improvement. On the positive side, his delivery is relatively simple and repeatable. He has good balance and doesn’t have any glaring timing issues or violence in his motion. This has translated into good control (only 14 walks in 61.2 IP as a sophomore) and a consistent release point on all his pitches. Hitters have a tough time picking up the ball against him, in part due to the extension and the three-quarters slot creating unusual trajectories. However, the same tall, upright delivery that gives him angle is also leaving some velocity untapped.

Downs currently generates most of his power from his upper body, with limited contribution from his legs and hips. He remains very upright through his motion and doesn’t fully utilize the potential energy from his lower half. Pitching coaches often talk about taller pitchers needing to “learn to use their levers” – essentially, to better engage the glutes and drive off the back leg. In Downs’ case, improving his lower-half mechanics could unlock significant gains. Pro development staffs often focus on exactly this: teaching tall pitchers to sit into their backside and create more hip-shoulder separation during the stride. If Downs can learn to load his rear glute and drive more forcefully down the mound, it’s reasonable to expect his fastball velocity to tick up a couple of mph without sacrificing command. Indeed, Downs’ delivery currently looks like there is more in the tank – he has a loose arm and a big frame, so even a minor mechanical adjustment could lead to a jump from, say, 88 mph to 90–91 mph. It’s a positive sign that there’s still room for mechanical improvement in his game. Unlike a smaller pitcher who’s already maxed out, Downs has fixable areas in his delivery that, if addressed, could take his stuff to the next level.

In terms of deception, Downs benefits from his long limbs and low release point. He releases the ball closer to the plate than most college pitchers, which effectively makes his 87 mph fastball play faster in the batter’s box. Additionally, his ability to throw all of his pitches from the same arm slot adds an element of tunnel deception – hitters don’t get an early read on which pitch is coming. Downs does not employ any extreme gimmicks in his windup; it’s a fairly straightforward motion, but the extension and arm angle do the work of keeping hitters uncomfortable. If he can add that improved lower-half drive to his mechanics, he might also gain even more extension (and therefore deception), as his stride could lengthen and get him closer to home plate on release. All told, his current mechanics make him a strike-thrower with some funk, and potential tweaks could make him a late-blooming power lefty. It will be up to player development – either Cal Poly’s coaching staff in the short term or a professional organization down the line – to polish those mechanics for maximum output.

Outlook for 2026

Downs heads into his junior season in 2026 looking to cement himself as one of the Big West’s top pitchers. In 2025 he was used primarily as a multi-inning reliever and thrived in that role, often coming into games in the middle innings and shutting opponents down. However, Cal Poly might consider expanding his role moving forward. Late last season, Downs even showed he could handle a starter’s workload – most notably, in the Big West Tournament he threw a career-high 117 pitches over 6.1 innings in a win against UC Irvine. That outing demonstrated his endurance and effectiveness deep into games. Given that performance, the Mustangs’ coaching staff could be tempted to try him in the starting rotation in 2026, or at least use him in a similar fireman role where he regularly goes 3-5 innings at a time.

For Downs, the spring of 2026 will be a crucial window to boost his draft stock. He’s on the radar as a potential pro prospect, but to entice a team to draft him, he’ll want to show that any incremental velocity gains are sticking, that he can retire hitters multiple times through the order (if given starting opportunities), and that his swing-and-miss stuff plays consistently against high-level competition. If he can tick those boxes, some MLB team will likely be intrigued enough to take a gamble on his projection. College lefties with excellent feel but questionable velocity have historically been hit or miss in pro ball, which is why a strong junior year is vital for Downs. The good news is he’s trending in the right direction – his sophomore numbers and Cape League success already suggest a pitcher who is figuring things out. Another jump in performance (or stuff) in 2026 could solidify him as a draft-worthy prospect. And even if the fastball remains in the 80s, a continued track record of getting outs will make it easier for scouts to overlook the radar gun reading and bet on his combination of size, command, and secondary quality.

Projection

Chris Downs projects as a bit of a wild card, with a range of possible outcomes at the professional level. If things remain as they are – i.e. a high-80s fastball and good secondaries – he likely profiles as a crafty left-hander out of the bullpen. In that scenario, he could be a middle reliever or long-man who relies on mixing pitches and locating, somewhat in the mold of a situational lefty who can handle two innings at a time. However, if Downs can indeed find a few extra miles per hour and sharpen his mechanics, the ceiling rises. With a low-90s fastball to go along with his plus slider and solid changeup, Downs’ profile would resemble that of a back-end starter or swingman at the next level. His command of the zone and feel for pitching give him a solid foundation to build upon. It’s easy to see him carving out a role as a reliable innings-eater in pro ball if his stuff plays up just a bit more. On the optimistic side, you could dream on a 6’7” lefty who figures it all out and becomes a mid-rotation starter – but that would require significant development in velocity and consistency. More realistically, Downs’ likely future role is somewhere between a fifth starter and a multi-inning reliever, with his ultimate value hinging on whether that fastball can make the jump from fringy to average.

Ultimately, Downs is the type of prospect a team might gamble on in the middle-to-late rounds, hoping to unlock the remaining potential in his frame. He has already shown the pitchability, competitive mound presence, and ability to adapt to higher competition. If the velocity comes along, he could far exceed expectations. If not, his savvy and 6’7” angle could still give him a fighting chance to inch his way up the pro ladder as a matchup lefty. Downs has proven he can get outs with what he currently has; now it’s about proving he can get even better. In a sense, he’s exactly the kind of college arm that professional development staffs love to work with – big, coachable, with clear areas to refine. 2026 will go a long way in determining just how intriguing Chris Downs can be, but there’s enough raw material here that one shouldn’t bet against him making a name for himself at the next level.

Fastball	Slider	Changeup	Command	Overall
50	55	50	55	50

Player Profile: Alejandro Garza – 3B/2B, Cal Poly

Alejandro Garza, wearing a white baseball uniform, follows through on a swing.

Height/Weight: 5’9”, 165 lbs
DOB: June 4, 2005
Bats/Throws: R/R

Alejandro Garza – affectionately nicknamed “Peanut” by teammates and fans for his smaller stature – has done nothing but hit since arriving at Cal Poly. In two seasons as the Mustangs’ everyday infielder, Garza has compiled a career .349 average and established himself as one of the toughest outs in college baseball. As a true freshman in 2024, Garza slashed .346/.388/.457, earned Big West Freshman Field Player of the Year honors and a first-team All-Big West selection. He struck out only 10 times all season in 235 plate appearances, an astounding display of contact ability that ranked him #2 in the nation in toughest-to-strike-out rate. He didn’t hit any home runs that year, but he sprayed 11 doubles and consistently came up with clutch hits. In 2025, Garza avoided any sophomore slump – in fact, he got even better. He was one of three Mustangs to start all 62 games and led the team with a .351 batting average. Over 262 at-bats he amassed 92 hits, 16 doubles, 6 home runs and 54 RBIs, slugging .481 and reaching base at a .408 clip. He also scored 57 runs to pace the offense. Importantly, Garza maintained his remarkable contact skills, punching out just 16 times all season. That equates to one strikeout every 16.4 at-bats, ranking him top-10 in the nation in toughest to strike out (9th nationally). He also drew 21 walks, so his BB/K ratio was positive (21:16) – rare for any hitter, let alone an underclassman. Along with teammate Ryan Fenn, Garza earned first-team All-Big West and second-team All-West Region honors for his phenomenal season. After firmly establishing himself as one of the Big West’s elite hitters, Garza took his talents to the Cape Cod League, joining Orleans for the summer. Despite facing strong pitching and wood bats, he continued to be a high-average bat, hitting .298 with a .357 OBP in 114 at-bats. He tallied 3 doubles, 1 homer and 16 RBIs for the Firebirds. True to form, he hardly struck out – only 12 Ks versus 11 walks all summer. Garza even proved his mettle by overcoming a mid-summer injury: a hit-by-pitch on the thumb that was expected to sideline him for two weeks, yet “Peanut” toughed it out and missed only seven days before returning to action, much to the admiration of coaches and teammates.

Garza’s offensive game is defined by exceptional contact ability and all-fields hitting. At 5’9” and 165 lbs, he is never going to be a pure power hitter, but he has a knack for hitting hard line drives from gap to gap. He utilizes a wide base in his stance, which gives him great balance and plate coverage. Garza can spoil pitcher’s pitches and rarely chases – that low strikeout rate reflects an advanced two-strike approach where he shortens up and puts the ball in play. Interestingly, as a sophomore he unlocked some power that wasn’t present in his freshman year – he went from 0 home runs in 2024 to 6 home runs in 2025. Those weren’t flukes either; many came from him turning on inside fastballs and driving them with surprising carry. He also racked up 16 doubles in 2025, showing that while he may be small, he can hit the ball with authority when he finds the barrel. Most of Garza’s hits are hard line drives middle-away – he’s very adept at letting the ball travel and lining pitches to right-center. That served him well on the Cape, where many of his base hits were opposite-field liners. Defensively, Garza is a steady and reliable infielder. He primarily mans third base for Cal Poly, but he’s also seen time at second base (he had a few starts at second as a freshman and could easily flip over there as needed). What he may lack in raw arm strength or range, he makes up for with sure hands, quick transfers, and a high baseball IQ. He made 32 multi-hit games in 2025 and also put together hitting streaks of 20 and 16 games, demonstrating consistency and the ability to adjust as pitchers try different tactics to get him out. By all accounts, Garza is also an excellent teammate and a gritty competitor – the kind of player who ignites a clubhouse with his energy and determination (the quick return from a painful HBP is evidence of that toughness).

Player Profile

Build: Small and compact. Listed at 5’9”, 165 lbs, Garza is shorter than the typical pro infield prospect, but he’s well-conditioned and strong for his size. He has a low center of gravity and a “spark plug” build – think Dustin Pedroia-esque. His stature earned him the nickname “Peanut,” but despite being undersized, he holds his own physically on the field.

Offensive Approach: Elite contact hitter with a line-drive, opposite-field approach. Garza sets up with a notably wide base and minimal stride, which keeps him very balanced through his swing. He tracks the ball extremely well and has quick, educated hands. With two strikes, he’ll shorten up and just try to put the ball in play, often fouling off tough pitches until he gets one he likes. He is comfortable hitting behind in the count and rarely gets himself out by chasing. Garza’s approach is to use the whole field – he loves shooting line drives into right-center and up the middle. Even on the Cape with high-level pitching, he stuck to this plan and hit just under .300, mostly with singles and a few doubles the other way. He doesn’t try to do too much; he knows his game and executes it.

Bat Speed & Impact: While not blessed with huge raw power, Garza has quick hands and excellent bat-to-ball skills. His bat speed is solid average, and because his swing path is so efficient, he can catch up to good velocity. The impact he generates is more pronounced than you’d expect from his frame – he can backspin balls into the gaps and occasionally will drive one out to left field when he really turns on it. In 2025 he “erupted” for six homers after having none the year before, indicating that as he gains experience and confidence, he’s learning which pitches he can elevate. Still, power is his least present tool; he’s more likely to hit 15+ doubles and a handful of homers than to ever be a double-digit home run guy consistently. His career slugging at Cal Poly (.445) is respectable and comes from his ability to square up a high volume of pitches. Every now and then, Garza will really flash unexpected pop – for example, he had 7 triples in a high school season and frequently drives balls over outfielders’ heads. Pitchers cannot sleep on him, or he will make them pay.

Defense & Athleticism: Garza is a fundamentally sound defender at both third base and second base. He’s not the fastest runner or the biggest arm on the field, but his defensive game is about reliability. At third, he has solid reactions and can handle hot shots well, using his body to knock down balls and his quick exchange to compensate for just average arm strength. He makes the routine plays very consistently and rarely boots grounders hit at him. When playing second, his range is adequate and he turns the double play smoothly. His arm from second is plenty strong (he pitched some in high school, indicating a decent arm). Overall, you’d grade his defense as average to slightly above – he’s not a plus-plus defender, but he’s sure-handed and heady, which is exactly what you want from an infielder. His toughness and competitiveness also shine through on defense; he’s the type who will dive for anything he can get to. Athletically, he’s more quick than fast, and his smaller frame gives him good agility. He’s durable too – played in every game in 2025 (62 starts) and even when banged up, he finds a way to contribute.

Base Running: High-IQ base runner who maximizes his tools. Garza’s pure speed is around average – he’s not going to steal a ton of bases (career 4-for-4 on steals in college), but he’s an efficient runner. Where he stands out is in taking extra bases and reading the game. He scored 57 runs in 62 games in 2025, leading the team, which speaks to his ability to get himself into scoring position and take advantage of opportunities. He goes first-to-third on singles when he can, and he’ll score from second on most base hits due to great anticipation and aggressive yet smart running. Essentially, Garza won’t be a big base-stealer at the next level, but he will not make mistakes on the bases and will find ways to advance opportunistically. His “motor” is always running – a reflection of his gritty playing style.

Projection

Garza is the quintessential “undersized overachiever” who has a chance to force his way into pro ball by virtue of his hit tool and makeup. At the collegiate level, he’s already a star – a two-time first-team All-Big West selection by age 20. Entering 2026, he will again be one of the conference’s top hitters and a leader for Cal Poly. For the professional projection, the obvious concern is size/strength and how that will translate against higher velocity and better breaking stuff. However, players with Garza’s hand-eye coordination and batting feel often find a way. He profiles as a high-contact, high-OBP infielder at the next level, perhaps similar to a David Eckstein or Tommy La Stella type of career path. He may never hit for much power in pro ball, but if he can hit .300 and rarely strike out, a team will find value in that. His likely role projection would be as a utility infielder who can provide a spark off the bench – someone you bring in knowing he’ll put the bat on the ball in a pinch-hit situation. Defensively, he can handle second and third, and with his arm and instincts, he could probably even spot at shortstop in a pinch (though his range might be stretched there). One thing working in Garza’s favor is that contact skills are at a premium in today’s game; his ability to avoid Ks and put pressure on defenses will stand out to scouts. He’ll need to continue showing extra-base ability (those 16 doubles and 6 homers in 2025 were very encouraging) so pitchers can’t just challenge him without fear. If he can demonstrate that the power threat is at least credible, his offensive profile becomes that much more viable. Intangibles-wise, Garza’s toughness and winning mentality will be a plus in evaluators’ eyes – he’s the kind of player who becomes a clubhouse favorite. In summary, Garza projects as a potential late-round draft pick or priority free agent who, if given the opportunity, could climb the ladder as a pesky contact hitter. His ceiling might be an everyday second baseman who hits for average and plays solid defense, while his floor is a high-performing minor leaguer who provides organizational depth and leadership. Don’t bet against “Peanut” – he’s made a habit of exceeding expectations at every level so far.

Hit	Power	Run	Field	Ovr
60	40	50	50	45

Player Profile: Anthony Potestio – INF/OF, UC San Diego

Height/Weight: 6’0”, 190 lbs
DOB: November 5, 2004
Bats/Throws: L/R

Anthony Potestio burst onto the scene for UC San Diego as a versatile freshman in 2024, and by 2025 he had established himself as one of the Tritons’ top all-around players. In his first year, Potestio split time between the infield and outfield, hitting a team-best .318 and showing flashes of power and speed. As a sophomore, he took over the starting shortstop job and the leadoff spot in the order, elevating his game even further. Potestio started 40 games in 2025 and finished second on the team in batting average (.323) and on-base percentage (.450). He slashed .323/.450/.476 with 53 hits, 6 doubles, 2 triples, 5 homers and 30 RBIs, while also leading UCSD in walks (28) and stolen bases (9) He scored 40 runs, demonstrating his value as a table-setter who consistently finds ways to get on base and ignite the offense. Potestio’s mature approach (28 walks vs. 32 strikeouts) and balanced skill set earned him All-Big West Honorable Mention in 2025, and he carried that momentum into a strong summer with the Orleans Firebirds on the Cape. Facing elite competition, Potestio put up a .274/.424/.368 line with 9 doubles in 28 games, and he posted an even 24:24 BB/K ratio. Like Ickes, he was selected as a Cape Cod League All-Star, further cementing his status as one of the Big West’s rising stars.

A left-handed hitter listed at 6-foot and 190 pounds, Potestio has a compact, athletic build. He stands out for his bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. In spring 2025 he reached base nearly half the time and had almost as many walks as strikeouts, an impressive feat for an underclassman. Potestio employs a line-drive, spray hitter’s approach – he’s a true slasher who uses the whole field. He isn’t up there trying to hit home runs every time; instead, he works counts, takes his walks, and jumps on pitches he can drive in the gaps. He did show some sneaky pop (five homers, including a two-homer game against CSUN in April), but his game is built more on singles, doubles, and grinding out at-bats. Defensively, Potestio’s calling card is versatility. As a freshman he played left field, second base, and third base; as a sophomore he proved he could handle shortstop on a daily basis. In Orleans, he even spent time in right field and acquitted himself well, showcasing solid athleticism and arm strength to play multiple spots. While he’s capable in the outfield, his skill set plays better on the infield dirt – and indeed, his lack of big power would be less of a concern at an infield position than it would be as a corner outfielder. On the bases, Potestio is a solid runner who stole 9 bags in 10 tries for the Tritons. He’s not an elite burner, but he has enough speed to take an extra base and can swipe a bag with good jumps, as evidenced by his excellent success rate.

Player Profile

Build: Sturdy, athletic build for a middle infielder. Listed at 6’0”, 190 lbs, Potestio has a well-proportioned frame with a strong lower half. He’s added muscle since arriving at UCSD, but still moves well. Physically, he looks like a prototypical versatile infielder – solid and compact rather than lanky.

Offensive Approach: Left-handed hitter with a patient, leadoff-style approach. Sets up with a balanced stance and minimal movement, allowing him to track pitches well. He has a keen eye – led his team in walks in 2025 – and rarely chases out of the zone. Potestio’s swing is short and designed for hard contact. He peppers line drives to all fields and is comfortable hitting the ball where it’s pitched (many of his extra-base hits are gappers the other way). He excels at working deep counts, fouling off tough pitches, and waiting for something he can handle. This approach yielded a .450 OBP in 2025 and an even higher .424 OBP on the Cape, underscoring how tough an out he is.

Bat Speed & Impact: Potestio’s bat speed is around average, and he produces more contact than raw power. When he squares a ball up, he can drive it into the gaps – he totaled 15 extra-base hits (including 5 HR) for UCSD in 2025. He has occasional pull-side pop if a pitcher makes a mistake up in the zone, as shown by his five homers and a slugging percentage near .480. However, over the long haul he projects as a gap-to-gap hitter with below-average over-the-fence power. On the Cape, his slugging dropped to .368 with no homers, reflecting that he’s not a big lift-and-separate hitter. His swing is more linear, producing hard singles and doubles rather than towering flies. Overall impact with the bat comes more from a high on-base and solid average than from slugging.

Defense & Athleticism: One of Potestio’s strengths is his defensive flexibility. Primarily an infielder by trade, he has shown he can handle shortstop – the most demanding position – adequately, displaying good instincts and an accurate arm. He’s sure-handed on routine plays and capable of turning the double play at second base as well. His range at shortstop is decent, though not exceptional; he relies on good positioning and reads. At third base (where he played some as a freshman), his quick reactions and solid arm played well. In the outfield, Potestio was a quick study – he took efficient routes and showed he can track balls in right field. He’s an athletic defender, though not a truly plus tools guy at any one spot. Scouts think he “profiles better on the dirt” because his arm and bat fit an infield role more naturally than a corner outfield spot. Overall, he’s the kind of player you can plug in at multiple positions without a drop-off, which is a valuable trait.

Base Running: Solid runner with good instincts. Potestio isn’t the fastest player on the team, but he’s an efficient base stealer and an aggressive yet smart base runner overall. He swiped 9 bases in 2025 (leading UCSD) while only getting caught once, indicating a good feel for picking his spots. He accelerates well underway and can take extra bases on hits. In game action he shows alertness – reading balls in the dirt, moving first to third on singles, etc. His straight-line speed is probably around average or a tick above, but he maximizes it with heads-up play. He won’t be a big stolen base threat at the pro level, yet he can contribute with 10-15 steals and smart base running.

Projection

Potestio is shaping up to be one of the Big West’s top juniors in 2026 and a well-rounded draft prospect. His value lies in his jack-of-all-trades skill set: he hits for average, gets on base at a high clip, has a bit of pop, can run a bit, and can play multiple positions. That kind of profile can attract pro interest, especially if he continues to perform. The biggest knock on Potestio is the lack of a loud, plus tool – as a 6’0” infielder without big power or plus-plus speed, he might project more as a utility player in pro ball. To boost his stock, he’ll look to perhaps add a tick more slugging or further prove he can stick at a premium position like shortstop. Given his excellent plate discipline and contact skills, Potestio has a high floor as a prospect – coaches know they’re getting a smart hitter who will battle every at-bat. In the pros, he could fit the mold of a versatile left-handed hitting infielder (who can fill in at multiple spots and provide quality at-bats off the bench). If his power surprises to the upside (he’s still just entering his junior year, so some growth is possible), he could even profile as an everyday second baseman or offensive-minded utility man. At worst, his approach and defensive flexibility make him a strong candidate to be drafted in the mid-to-late rounds and given a chance to rise through the minors in a Swiss-army-knife role. First, he’ll be a focal point of UCSD’s lineup in 2026, where he should continue to be a consistent on-base machine and leader. Long-term, think of a ceiling akin to a Brock Holt or Jeff McNeil style player – someone who can do a bit of everything to help a club.

Hit	Power	Run	Field	Ovr
55	40	50	50	45

Player Profile: Elijah Ickes – SS, Hawai’i

Elijah Ickes, clad in a white baseball uniform with the word "Hawaii" across the chest, cocks his arm to throw across the diamond.

Height/Weight: 6’0”, 175 lbs
DOB: February 11, 2005
Bats/Throws: R/R

Elijah Ickes has been a mainstay on the left side of Hawai’i’s infield for two seasons, showing steady development at the plate and shining in the field. As a freshman in 2024, he immediately earned All-Big West honorable mention, hitting .280 with 12 doubles, 32 RBIs, and a .407 OBP while starting all 53 games (mostly at third base after a few early starts at shortstop). In 2025, Ickes took over as the Rainbow Warriors’ primary shortstop and elevated his offensive game despite missing a month to injury. He slashed .303/.387/.434 in 31 games with 7 doubles, 3 triples, 1 homer and 21 RBIs, finishing with an .821 OPS.

He also drew 13 walks against 27 strikeouts and went 6-for-8 in steals, showcasing a disciplined approach and solid all-around offensive contributions. Ickes carried that momentum into the summer, where he blossomed into a star as the starting shortstop for the Orleans Firebirds in the Cape Cod League. Facing elite college pitching with a wood bat, he posted a strong .282/.416/.443 line with 5 home runs, 6 doubles and 21 RBIs in 37 games. He earned a starting nod in the Cape League All-Star Game and demonstrated advanced plate discipline, working 29 walks against 36 strikeouts over the summer.

While Ickes’ offensive numbers have been solid, it’s his glove and defensive instincts that truly set him apart. A natural shortstop, the 6-foot Ickes shows excellent lateral range to both his left and right, along with smooth footwork and sure hands. He excels at charging slow rollers and throwing on the run, consistently delivering strikes to first base. Even though he’s only a fringe-average runner in straight-line speed, his first-step quickness, instincts, and keen internal clock allow him to make plays most collegiate shortstops can’t. At the plate, Ickes profiles as a gap-to-gap, line-drive hitter who uses the whole field. He’s not a power hitter by trade (he hit just one homer each in his freshman and sophomore seasons), but his 5 homers on the Cape were a pleasant surprise, hinting at a bit more pop developing as he continues to mature physically. He controls the strike zone well and is willing to take a walk, contributing to healthy on-base percentages in college (.387 OBP in 2025) and summer ball. With a pro-ready mindset and two years of starting experience, Ickes exudes a quiet confidence and steady presence on the field. Coaches laud his work ethic and maturity, traits that should serve him well at the next level.

Player Profile

Build: Lean, athletic frame with proportional strength. Listed at 6’0”, 175 lbs, with some room to add muscle without sacrificing agility. Maintains good flexibility and lower-half strength, ideal for a middle infielder.

Offensive Approach: Balanced right-handed swing focused on contact. Sets up with a simple, quiet stance and uses a short, direct path to the ball. Sprays line drives to all fields and rarely sells out for power. Shows patience and strike-zone awareness – walked nearly as often as he struck out this summer on the Cape. Comfortable hitting from behind in counts; will take a walk if he doesn’t get a pitch to drive.

Bat Speed & Impact: Average bat speed at present with a line-drive swing plane. Not a big exit-velocity guy, but he finds barrels consistently. Gap-to-gap hitter who can drive balls into the alleys for extra bases (19 doubles across his first two college seasons). Power is currently below average – capable of the occasional pull-side home run when he gets a mistake pitch (he hit his first collegiate homer in May 2024 and added one more in 2025. His wood-bat power surge (5 HR on the Cape) suggests there may be a bit more power to unlock as he continues to get stronger.

Defense & Athleticism: Plus defender at shortstop with advanced actions. Smooth footwork and excellent range to both sides allow him to get to balls in the hole and up the middle that lesser shortstops miss. Charges softly hit balls with confidence and has a quick transfer. His arm is strong and very accurate – he excels at throwing on the run and can make the off-balance throw from the 5-6 hole look routine. Only a fringe-average runner in the 60-yard dash, but his lateral quickness and instinctual positioning compensate for raw foot speed. Missed a month in 2025 with an injury but is otherwise a durable, dependable presence up the middle.

Base Running: Smart, heady base runner who picks his spots. He won’t wow with pure speed, but he’s an efficient thief when he does go (13-for-16 in stolen bases across 2024-25). Reads pitchers well and gets good jumps. Takes extra bases on hits thanks to solid instincts. Overall a positive on the bases due to his awareness, despite only fringe speed.

Projection

Ickes profiles as a defense-first shortstop who could play the game for a long time on the strength of his glove. At the college level, he’s a true linchpin at shortstop, and that should continue into his junior year and beyond. For pro ball, his slick fielding, reliable arm, and calm infield leadership give him a chance to stick as a utility infielder or defensive-minded shortstop in the mold of a Nick Ahmed type. The question will be how much impact his bat can provide. He projects as more of a line-drive hitter than a slugger, and while he may never be a middle-of-the-order force, the improvements he showed – particularly using a wood bat on the Cape – are encouraging. If he can consistently post an OPS in the high .800s as he did this summer and maybe grow into mid-single-digit home run power, Ickes will draw interest as a steady, all-around shortstop. He looks like a potential mid-to-late round draft pick after his junior year, valued for his premium defense, solid plate discipline, and makeup. Even if the bat peaks as average, his glove could carry him into a pro role. Overall, Ickes projects as a high-floor prospect – a future utility infielder in pro ball with the upside to be an everyday shortstop if the bat continues to progress.

Hit	Power	Run	Field	Ovr
55	40	45	60	50

New to Big West Baseball? Start Here.

Welcome to Big West Baseball

If you’ve just discovered Big West Dugout, welcome to my little corner of the college baseball universe. The Big West Conference is a Division I league headquartered in California and consisting of public universities on the West Coast. Ten of the 11 current members are in California and one is in Hawaiʻi, so the rivalries are regional and intense. The conference dates back to 1969, and while it no longer sponsors football, baseball remains one of its crown‐jewel sports.

Big West baseball is scrappy and competitive. The programs often recruit locally and develop players overlooked by larger conferences. Many of those players eventually reach the pros; at least a dozen former Big West players were on MLB Opening Day rosters in 2025, and UC Santa Barbara pitcher Tyler Bremner went second overall in the 2025 MLB Draft.

2025 Season Snapshot

The 2025 season showcased how balanced the Big West can be. UC Irvine captured the regular‑season title with a 24–6 conference record, but Cal Poly stormed through the postseason to claim the conference tournament. The table below summarizes each team’s conference record and a quick highlight.

Team	2025 Big West record*	Note
UC Irvine	24–6 (43–17 overall)	Regular‑season champions
Cal Poly	23–7 (43–19 overall)	2025 Big West tournament champions
Cal State Fullerton	19–11 (29–27 overall)	Four national championships (1979, 1984, 1995, 2004) and 18 College World Series appearances
UC Santa Barbara	16–14 (36–18 overall)	Tyler Bremner drafted No. 2 overall in 2025
Hawaiʻi	16–14 (35–21 overall)	Competitive program from the islands
UC San Diego	15–15 (26–25 overall)	Successful D-II program which joined D-I in 2021
Long Beach State	15–15 (22–31 overall)	The “Dirtbags” nickname reflects a gritty, hard‑nosed style
UC Davis	13–17 (27–28 overall)	Alumni like Daniel Descalso and analytics pioneer Sig Mejdal now work as MLB coaches and executives
CSUN (Cal State Northridge)	10–20 (15–34 overall)	Has produced 17 MLB players, including 2025 All‑Star pitcher Joe Ryan
Cal State Bakersfield	9–21 (18–38 overall)	A young program (founded in 2009)
UC Riverside	5–25 (16–36 overall)	Division II national championships in 1977 and 1982

*Conference record shown first; overall record in parentheses.

Big West Playoff & NCAA Tournament Format

Big West Championship – Starting in 2025, the conference revived its postseason tournament after a 27‑year hiatus. The top five teams from the regular season qualify. Seeds No. 4 and No. 5 play a single‑elimination “play‑in” game; the winner joins seeds 1–3 in a four‑team, double‑elimination bracket. The champion earns the Big West title and an automatic berth in the NCAA tournament. This format continues in 2026: The tournament will be held at UC Irvine’s Anteater Ballpark and again features a play‑in game followed by a double‑elimination bracket.

Path to Omaha – Winning the Big West championship guarantees a spot in the NCAA Division I Baseball Tournament, but other high‑performing Big West teams can receive at‑large bids. The NCAA tournament features 64 teams. Regionals are hosted at 16 sites with four‑team double‑elimination brackets. Regional winners advance to Super Regionals, which are best‑of‑three series. The eight Super Regional winners move on to the Men’s College World Series in Omaha, where two double‑elimination brackets determine the finalists. The winners of those brackets play a best‑of‑three series for the national title. Because the NCAA postseason alternates between double‑elimination brackets and best‑of‑three series, a team can lose multiple games yet still win it all.

Why Big West Dugout?

Big West Dugout is a fan‑powered blog created by someone who loves this game and the incredible players and teams in the Big West, with no insider credentials. The goal is to shine a light on hardworking athletes and competitive programs through player spotlights, team analysis and draft‑prospect breakdowns.

Here’s what you’ll find:

Team pages: Each of the 11 schools has its own section with trend pieces, weekend notes and player spotlights. Use the Teams menu to explore.
Draft coverage and player profiles: Scouting reports on draft prospects, updates on former Big West players in the minors, and deep dives into rising stars (e.g., our coverage of the 2024 draftees).
Conference news: Updates on standings, awards and postseason tournaments. This includes big stories and features on Big West alumni in MLB.

Everything is written from the bleachers, not the press box. The tone is informal and honest – a blend of stats, scouting and fandom.

Big West in the Pros

The Big West has a proud tradition of producing professional talent. At least twelve former Big West players were on 2025 MLB Opening Day rosters, with Cal State Fullerton leading all programs with four players. Notable alumni include Jarren Duran (Long Beach State), Shane Bieber (UC Santa Barbara), Brooks Lee and Drew Thorpe (Cal Poly). Managers Brandon Hyde (Baltimore Orioles) and Mark Kotsay (Oakland A’s) also hail from the conference. The 2025 draft further showcased Big West talent: UC Santa Barbara’s Tyler Bremner was taken second overall after dominating college hitters with a 2.54 ERA and 104 strikeouts in 2024.

Get Involved

Comment on posts, share your own observations, or suggest players to watch. Follow Big West Dugout on social media and subscribe to get emails when new posts go live. Whether you’re a die‑hard fan, a parent of a player, or just curious about West Coast college baseball, this site is your dugout.

California High School Arms to Watch for the 2026 Draft

Normally Big West Dugout is all about our local college stars, but every so often a California high schooler demands attention. So consider this a fun detour: four big-armed California pitchers – Logan Georges, Logan Schmidt, Gary Morse, and Cooper Sides – stood out recently during USA Baseball’s 18U Trials ahead of the world games.

Logan Georges (Clovis HS, RHP, TCU commit)

At 6-5, Georges is a true flamethrower. His fastball tops out at 95 mph, and he pairs it with a sharp breaking ball in the mid-70s. He boasts a tall, strong frame and big, durable starter profile – he’s got a live two-seam and four-seam fastball plus quality slider and changeup, all coming out of a smooth delivery. In short, Georges’ high-90s velocity and wipeout slider could make him one of the draft’s top arms.

Logan Schmidt (Ganesha HS, LHP, uncommitted)

Schmidt is a big, power lefty (listed at 6-4, 215) who reclassified early to the 2026 class. He’s a very polished southpaw with all the pitches and plus command potential, with a fastball that can reach 94 mph. But he’s not just pure velocity – Schmidt commands a tight-spin breaking ball and a sharp changeup rounds out his mix. While he’s still young (just 17) and technically oriented, the raw stuff is enticing: a solid fastball-slider/changeup combo with a strong frame.

Gary Morse (Orange Lutheran HS, RHP, Tennessee commit)

This 6-foot-8 righty is a classic high-ceiling prospect. Morse’s length gives him plenty of drama on the mound – scouts note he struggles to control such long limbs sometimes, but the potential is massive. When he’s on, his heater sits in the low-90s with a heavy downhill life. More importantly, his secondary pitches look like future pluses. He throws a hard, sharp curveball and, most intriguingly, a changeup in the 83–84 mph range that has all the makings of a future plus pitch. In other words, Morse has the frame and raw stuff of a top-end arm – think 95+ heat with a big fading changeup – even if his control is a work in progress. It’s the kind of upside that could warrant a first-round look if he refines it, and it’s fun to see a player with this kind of profile.

Cooper Sides (Orange Lutheran HS, RHP, LSU commit)

Sides is another power righty from Orange Lutheran (same program as Morse). He’s a big 6-5, 210-pound pitcher with a true four-pitch mix. He’s big-bodied right-hander whose fastball touched 95 mph at a PG national event (and he pounds the zone too – about 70% strikes on one scout’s chart). Like Georges, Sides complements heat with multiple breaking balls – think a sharp curve, a slider, and a changeup – giving him depth beyond the fastball. He’s exactly the kind of hard-thrower who can ramp up late and miss bats.

Where Are the Big West’s 2024 Draftees Now?

Now that the 2025 MLB Draft has come and gone, it’s a perfect time to look back at last year’s Big West draftees and see how they’re faring in pro ball. One year after the draft, these former college standouts are scattered across the minor leagues – some thriving, some facing the challenges of pro competition. Below, I break down the progress of the 2024 draftees from each Big West school, including their minor league assignments and stat lines.

Cal Poly Mustangs

Jakob Wright (LHP, 4th Round, Los Angeles Dodgers): The Dodgers grabbed Cal Poly’s ace 128th overall, impressed by his strike-throwing and polish. Unfortunately, Wright’s pro career has started slowly due to injury. After signing late last summer, he made only a brief Complex League appearance and opened 2025 in Single-A. He was assigned to the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes (Low-A) but landed on the injured list in April 2025 before logging significant innings. As of now, Wright has yet to really debut in full-season ball. The Dodgers remain high on his upside – he showed plus command at Cal Poly – but fans will have to wait a bit longer to see those talents on display in the minors.

Ryan Stafford (C, 5th Round, Baltimore Orioles): One of the Big West’s best all-around catchers, Stafford earned Big West Defensive Player of the Year in 2024 and hit .368 with 46 RBI at Cal Poly. The Orioles picked him 160th overall, envisioning a defense-first backstop with offensive upside. Thus far, Stafford’s pro trajectory has been intriguing. He got off to a strong start in 2024 at Low-A Delmarva, batting .327 with a .444 OBP in 15 games and even stealing 9 bases. The Orioles challenged him with a promotion to High-A Aberdeen by season’s end, and that’s where he opened 2025. There, Stafford has faced tougher pitching – he’s hitting only .177 through roughly 75 games, with 0 home runs and 23 RBI. On the bright side, he continues to flash his athleticism, swiping 19 bases already in 2025, an unusually high total for a catcher. His plate discipline and contact skills will be areas to watch; the jump to High-A is testing his bat, but his strong defense and base-running make him a unique catching prospect in the Orioles system.

Steven Brooks (RHP, 11th Round, Boston Red Sox): A 6’6” right-hander from Cal Poly, Brooks was taken 327th overall by Boston after a solid college career as both a starter and reliever. The Red Sox limited his workload after signing in 2024, and he debuted in 2025 at Low-A Salem. Brooks has been working as a starting pitcher for Salem, where his performance has been up-and-down in the first half. In 14 starts, he’s 2-6 with a 6.08 ERA over 53.1 innings. He’s striking out roughly a batter per inning (51 K) but also carrying a 1.54 WHIP, indicating he’s allowing too many baserunners. Brooks is still adjusting to pro hitters – refining his command and secondary pitches will be key. The Red Sox like his frame and arm strength, so he’ll likely get ample time to develop in A-ball.

Jake Steels (OF, 18th Round, Atlanta Braves): A dynamic center fielder for the Mustangs, Steels fell to the 18th round despite hitting .381with 8 steals as Cal Poly’s leadoff man in 2024. The Braves saw a potential sparkplug and drafted him 551st overall. Steels’ transition to pro ball has been challenging offensively. After a brief 12-game stint in Low-A Augusta in late 2024 where he hit .231, Steels has spent 2025 between Augusta and High-A Rome. Across those stops, he’s appeared in 50 games, batting only .171 with 0 home runs. On the positive side, he’s shown a patient eye and has a few stolen bases, but his contact rate and power are currently underdeveloped. It’s not uncommon for later-round hitters to need time adjusting to pro pitching – Steels is only 22 and known for his work ethic, so the Braves will be patient. Fans at Augusta did get to see his game-changing speed and defense in center, even as his bat searches for consistency.

Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

Ryan Verdugo (RHP, 12th Round, Houston Astros): Verdugo made history as the first CSUB player ever drafted by the Astros when Houston grabbed him in the 12th round (373rd overall). A 6’2” righty who led the Roadrunners with a 2.72 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 2024, Verdugo unfortunately has not yet logged official innings in minor-league play. He signed in July 2024 but did not pitch in games last summer. He opened 2025 in Astros minor league camp and was assigned to the Low-A Fayetteville Woodpeckers roster to start the year. However, in early April the Astros moved him to the Florida Complex League (rookie level), and reports indicate he’s on the 60-day injured list. It appears Verdugo may be rehabbing from an injury (unconfirmed publicly), which has delayed his pro debut. When healthy, Verdugo features a lively fastball and a sharp slider that helped him dominate Big West hitters. The Astros are likely taking a cautious approach – once he’s recovered, he could move quickly as a college-tested arm.

Cal State Fullerton Titans

Christian “Rod” Rodriguez (RHP, 10th Round, Baltimore Orioles): In 2024, Rodriguez had a tough season (3-8, 5.45 ERA), but still showed flashes of dominance. The Orioles chose him in the 10th round (309th overall). Unfortunately, Rodriguez’s pro career is also off to a slow start due to injury. He pitched in eight games after signing last year, but was placed on the 60-day injured list in 2025. As of mid-2025, he has not yet made an appearance. Orioles fans shouldn’t forget about him, though – at 6’6” with a mid-90s fastball, Rodriguez has the arsenal to thrive if he can get healthy. We’ll likely see his debut pushed to 2026.

Andrew Morones (RHP, 16th Round, Kansas City Royals): A reliable reliever for the Titans, Morones was taken 467th overall by Kansas City. He impressed the Royals enough to jump to their Royals’ High-A Quad Cities squad in 2024, where he started this season, as well. However, his season hit a bump with an injury as well – he was sent on a rehab assignment to the complex league in May 2025. Prior to the injury, Morones’ stats were rough: an ERA above 5 in limited High-A innings, with control being an issue (nearly 5.5 walks per 9). When healthy, Morones is a bullpen arm with a low-90s fastball and slider – he’ll need to cut down the free passes to advance. The good news is he’s back throwing in Arizona; if all goes well, he could rejoin Quad Cities or Low-A Columbia later this year to continue his development.

Evan Yates (RHP, 20th Round, Baltimore Orioles): Yates’ story is a unique one. He missed the entire 2024 college season due to personal reasons, but shined in the MLB Draft League over the summer – that performance got him drafted in the 20th round by Baltimore. The Orioles were aggressive with Yates from the start. He actually made his pro debut at High-A Aberdeen late in 2024, tossing two scoreless innings in his first outing. In 2025, Baltimore opted to have Yates start games in Low-A Delmarva to build up innings. He has taken to the starting role quite well. In his season debut for Delmarva’s home opener, Yates threw 4.0 shutout innings with 8 strikeouts and 0 walks. He features a low-90s fastball with movement and a sharp curve, and importantly, he’s shown the ability to throw strikes consistently after that year off. Given his age, don’t be surprised if the O’s bump him back up to High-A later this year.

Long Beach State Dirtbags

Mike Villani (RHP, 13th Round, Los Angeles Dodgers → Cincinnati Reds): Villani, LBSU’s fireballing closer, was picked in the 13th round by the Dodgers after notching 10 saves and a 3.24 ERA in 2024 at Long Beach. His pro career took an unexpected turn in May 2025, when the Cincinnati Reds acquired Villani from the Dodgers in a high-profile trade that sent MLB closer Alexis Díaz to LA. Why would the Reds target a newly minted minor leaguer like Villani? In two brief Rookie-ball appearances for the Dodgers, Villani was perfect (2 innings, 0 baserunners, 5 strikeouts). That, combined with his college track record, convinced Cincinnati he could be a fast riser in the bullpen. Now in the Reds system, Villani has been assigned to their High-A affiliate (Dayton Dragons) as a reliever. He’s only just begun his Reds tenure, but scouts love his mid-90s sinker and competitive mound presence. Keep an eye on him as a possible fast-track bullpen arm; the Reds clearly believe in his upside.

UC Irvine Anteaters

Caden Kendle (OF, 5th Round, Minnesota Twins): Kendle was a two-time All-Big West First Teamer. After being drafted in the 5th round (159th overall), he played briefly at Low-A Fort Myers in 2024, batting .284 in 22 games. The Twins pushed Kendle to High-A Cedar Rapids in 2025, and he’s been a steady contributor. In 69 games with the Kernels, Kendle is hitting .253 with 6 home runs, 32 RBI, 17 doubles, and 11 stolen bases. Notably, he is showing good plate discipline, and he’s slugging .430 – showing some of the gap power he had in college. Kendle’s well-rounded offensive game (contact, a bit of pop, and speed) has translated nicely so far. He’s also an excellent defensive outfielder, and reports from Cedar Rapids praise his leadership and professionalism. If he continues at this pace, Kendle could see Double-A by early next year.

Woody Hadeen (SS, 6th Round, Detroit Tigers): Hadeen had a breakout 2024 at UCI, hitting .358 and scoring 82 runs as a speedy shortstop. The Tigers selected him in the 6th round (176th overall). Thus far in pro ball, Hadeen’s elite speed and contact skills have been intermittently on display. After debuting in Low-A Lakeland last year, he jumped to High-A West Michigan to begin 2025. It’s been a bit of a struggle at the plate – through roughly 30+ games, Hadeen is batting in the low-.200s (early in the year he was around .121, though he’s improved since). He hasn’t hit any home runs yet and has a handful of RBI. On the plus side, he continues to draw walks (his OBP was near .293 even when his average was .121) and has stolen a few bases. Defensively, Hadeen’s range and glove work have drawn praise, and Detroit is giving him time as an everyday shortstop in High-A. The Tigers are betting that Hadeen’s contact/on-base skills will come around with more reps; when they do, his speed (12 steals in 2024 for UCI) and defense could make him a true top-of-the-lineup sparkplug.

Myles Smith (OF, 7th Round, Cincinnati Reds): Smith was the 2024 Big West Field Player of the Year, after hitting a scorching .401 with a 1.170 OPS at UCI. The Reds nabbed him in Round 7 (209th overall). Smith’s pro career, however, has started on a rough note offensively. He has split this year between Low-A Daytona and High-A Dayton. In total, Myles Smith has around 168 at-bats in pro ball and is hitting just .149 with 2 home runs and 15 RBI. That is a stark contrast to his collegiate domination. Smith will look to regain the confident approach that made him a fearsome hitter in college. Given his talent, a second-half bounce-back is possible once he adjusts to professional breaking balls.

Dub Gleed (3B, 9th Round, Miami Marlins): Gleed battled some injuries at UCI but hit .351 when healthy in 2024, enticing the Marlins to take him in the 9th round (274th overall). Miami started Gleed at Low-A Jupiter in late 2024, and interestingly gave him a one-game taste of Triple-A in May 2025 (likely to cover a roster gap). Primarily, though, he’s been with the Jupiter Hammerheads. Gleed’s batting average won’t wow you – he’s hit around .207 in A-ball – but his on-base skills have been excellent. In fact, Dub Gleed has posted a .356 OBP in Jupiter. Through his first 25 pro games, he had 16 hits and 17 walks, showing a mature approach. Overall, in 2025 Gleed’s slashing roughly .216/.393/.293 with a wOBA around .363, finding ways to contribute despite limited power so far. Gleed will aim to boost his contact moving forward. If he does, his versatility (he’s played 3B, 1B, and some 2B) and on-base ability could move him up the ladder quickly.

Nick Pinto (LHP, 19th Round, Chicago White Sox): A crafty lefty who was an All-Big West second-teamer, Pinto unfortunately has had a nightmare year health-wise. He debuted briefly at Low-A Kannapolis in 2024 but made only one appearance before elbow trouble struck. In May 2025, Pinto exited a game with an apparent arm injury, and shortly thereafter he was moved to the full-season injured list. The update out of Chicago was that he underwent Tommy John surgery, which will wipe out his 2025 season. It’s a tough break – Pinto had shown promise, and the White Sox were intrigued enough to draft him despite a heavy college workload. Before the injury, he had a reputation for pinpoint control and an above-average changeup. Now, Pinto will rehab with hopes of returning healthy in 2026. The bright side: many pitchers come back strong from TJ surgery, and Pinto will only be 24 next year with an opportunity to reset and begin his climb then.

UC San Diego Tritons

Ryan Forcucci (RHP, 3rd Round, Houston Astros): UCSD announced itself in the Big West by producing a 3rd-round pick in 2024 – Ryan Forcucci went #101 overall to Houston. This hard-throwing righty had first-round buzz before an elbow injury ended his college season early. The Astros still invested nearly $1M in him, believing in his upside. As expected, Forcucci has not pitched yet in pro ball while recovering from Tommy John surgery (which he underwent last June). The Astros have placed him on the 60-day IL and he’s been rehabbing all year. Reports say Forcucci’s recovery is going well – he’s on track for fall instructional league or spring 2026. Prior to injury, he showed a high-90s fastball and plus slider that made scouts drool. If he comes back healthy, Forcucci has the talent to rocket through the minors; the Astros are no doubt eagerly awaiting his debut. Patience is key, but keep him on your radar as a potential impact arm down the road.

Matt Halbach (3B/1B, 10th Round, Chicago Cubs): Halbach was a draft wildcard – he hit .408 in just 19 games for UCSD in 2024 (missing time with injury), but the Cubs loved the bat enough to take him in Round 10 (302nd overall). Halbach opened 2025 as the everyday third baseman for the Low-A Myrtle Beach Pelicans (Cubs affiliate). Through 68 games in 2025, Halbach is batting .226 with 6 home runs and 36 RBI. He’s also clubbed 1 doubles and shown flashes of the hitting ability that allowed him to slug .662 in college. At 6’3” and 215 lbs, Halbach has a projectable power bat – the Cubs have even tried him a bit at first base and left field to increase his versatility. One interesting note: Halbach got an opportunity to play in the Australian Baseball League this past winter, further honing his skills. If he can improve his contact rate, the power and run production will only increase. The Cubs system is stacked at the corners, but Halbach is quietly putting himself on the map as a prospect to watch.

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Matt Ager (RHP, 6th Round, Pittsburgh Pirates): Ager was a dominant closer in 2024 for UCSB (11 saves, All-Big West Second Team) after a stellar 2023 as a starter. The Pirates took him in the 6th round (174th overall), envisioning a versatile right-hander. In 2025, Ager began back at Bradenton, where his command has been less than stellar. In 54.0 innings, he’s allowed 52 hits, 30 walks, and 8 HBP – but he’s also struck out 34. When on the mound, Ager flashes a four-pitch mix, including a sinking fastball around 92-95 mph. If he gets healthy in the second half, Ager could move to High-A Greensboro and make up for lost time. He’s still a very intriguing arm (some in the org compare him to a young Trevor Williams type).

Ryan Gallagher (RHP, 6th Round, Chicago Cubs): Gallagher, the Big West Pitcher of the Year in 2024 (10-1, 2.22 ERA), has been on the fast track since the Cubs snagged him in Round 6 (182nd overall). Known for his polished changeup and pinpoint control, Gallagher has already risen to Double-A in just one year. He started 2025 in High-A South Bend and pitched well, striking out 85 batters in 72.2 innings and earning a mid-season promotion to the Tennessee Smokies (Double-A). Combined between the two levels, Gallagher’s numbers jump off the page: 4-6 record, 3.43 ERA, 84.0 innings, 96 strikeouts, only 1.07 WHIP in 16 starts. That WHIP and a K-rate above 10 K/9 show he’s missing bats and limiting baserunners with equal skill. The Cubs could be in line for a potential 2026 MLB debut if he continues this trajectory. Gallagher’s success is built on his advanced command – his walk rate is around 7%, very low for a first-year pitcher. It’s not far-fetched to say Gallagher has been the most successful Big West 2024 draftee so far. If you loved him at UCSB, you’ll be delighted to see him carving up minor-league hitters with that deadly changeup and poise on the mound.

Aaron Parker (C, 6th Round, Toronto Blue Jays): Parker was the Big West’s premier catcher in 2024, hitting .379 with 12 homers and showing a strong arm behind the plate. The Blue Jays picked him in the 6th round (187th overall), and he’s already proving to be a draft steal. Parker spent a short time in Low-A last year and moved up to High-A Vancouver for 2025. In 62 games for the Vancouver Canadians, Parker is batting .233 with 8 home runs, 65 RBI, and a .689 OPS. He did spend a brief stint on the injured list to start 2025, but since being activated, he’s been healthy and productive. With his stocky 5’9” frame and quick left-handed bat, Parker has drawn comparisons to former Blue Jays catcher Guillermo Quiroz as a solid all-around backstop.

Ivan Brethowr (OF, 7th Round, Chicago Cubs): Brethowr was a power-packed outfielder for UCSB, and the Cubs grabbed him in Round 7 (212th overall) as part of their Gaucho haul. Listed 6’6” and 250 lbs, Brethowr looks like a slugger and showed flashes with 28 homers over two college seasons. In pro ball, he’s been steadily adjusting. Brethowr spent 2024 in Low-A Myrtle Beach and is in High-A South Bend for 2025. So far in ’25, he’s hitting in the low-.220s with 4 home runs and 26 RBI through 82 games. He’s also stolen 23 bases, but his K-rate is around 26% at High-A. The encouraging sign is Brethowr’s plate discipline: he’s drawing walks at a healthy clip, leading to an OBP in the .390s despite a modest batting average. When he does connect, the ball flies – though officially he has just 4 homers, he’s hit a bunch of doubles and loud outs. Cubs development staff have worked with him to shorten his swing and use the whole field. Given his size and raw strength, patience is key. If the light turns on, Brethowr could start crushing Midwest League pitching. For now, he’s holding his own and contributing RBIs for South Bend, and the Cubs are content to let the 22-year-old refine his approach.

Zander Darby (3B/1B, 12th Round, San Francisco Giants): Darby was a senior sign who went in the 12th round (358th overall) to the Giants, and he’s been one of the surprise success stories among Big West draftees. In his first full pro season with the Low-A San Jose Giants, Darby has been raking. As of mid-2025, he’s slashing .295/.406/.466 with 5 home runs and 50 RBI in 57 games. He’s collected 57 hits in 193 at-bats, showing both contact and some pop, and even added ten stolen bases. That performance is in line with the hot streak he ended his college career on – Darby caught fire in May 2024 for UCSB and has carried it forward. The Giants have primarily played him at third base, though he saw time at first in college. What’s notable is Darby’s advanced plate approach; at 23, he was a bit old for Low-A, so his success needs that context, but he’s doing exactly what you’d hope an older draftee would do – lead the team in RBI and hit near .300. He may be due for a promotion to High-A Eugene in the second half. Giants fans, remember the name – Zander Darby could move quickly if he keeps hitting like this.

Brendan Durfee (C/1B, 14th Round, San Diego Padres): Durfee was a one-year wonder at UCSB after transferring from Division III – he hit 9 homers with a 1.020 OPS as a senior, leading the Gauchos in slugging. The Padres drafted him in the 14th round (420th overall), intrigued by his lefty power and versatility. Durfee had a strong debut at Low-A Lake Elsinore in late 2024, hitting .288 with 2 homers and 18 RBI in 20 games. That earned him a promotion to High-A Fort Wayne to start 2025. In Fort Wayne, Durfee has found it a bit tougher sledding – in 66 games, he’s batting .222 with 2 homers and 21 RBI. He has 12 doubles, so the extra-base hit ability is still there, but his strikeout rate has climbed facing better pitching. He’s splitting time at catcher and first base in High-A. The rigors of catching full-season ball can sometimes affect offensive output, which may be a factor in his modest stats. San Diego is generally aggressive with college hitters, so despite the .222 average, they’ll likely keep Durfee moving forward – especially given his excellent first impression last year. If he can adjust to High-A pitching in the late summer, he might tap back into that power we saw in college (he’s capable of a late-season homer surge). At worst, Durfee projects as a versatile organizational player; at best, maybe he becomes a lefty power bat who can catch – which has definite value.

Cal State Northridge

Kevin Fitzer (16th Round, Colorado Rockies): Kevin Fitzer, a standout at Cal State Northridge, is the Matadors’ 106th draftee in program history. Selected 468th overall by the Colorado Rockies in the 16th round, Fitzer capped a four-year college career batting .328 with 19 home runs, 102 RBI, and a 1.060 OPS in 2024. He earned All‑Big West Honorable Mention, led CSUN in doubles (13) and stolen bases (11), and became the first Matador in 22 years to win back‑to‑back Field Player of the Week honors.

As of mid‑2025, Fitzer is slashing .240/.326/.333 (.659 OPS) over 288 at‑bats in Low‑A with the Fresno Grizzlies, Colorado’s affiliate in the California League. He’s driven in 34 runs, hit 3 homers, and stolen 5 bases—a solid first full pro season. His month-by-month splits show clear improvement: after a slow April (.127 AVG), he turned it around with a .311 average in June and strong performances in May as well. Fitzer has already collected multiple multi-hit and multi‑RBI games (including a first‑career pro walk‑off on June 29 vs. Stockton).

At 6’2″, 200 lbs, Fitzer offers a balanced right‑handed profile—moderate power, gap-to-gap doubles, plus plate discipline (.326 OBP) and occasional speed. He primarily plays first base but has seen time in left field and even at designated hitter. Defensively, scouts note his smooth glove actions and consistent arm accuracy, which align with his experience at multiple positions in college. The Rockies are giving him steady reps every day to let him refine his swing and in-game awareness at full‑season ball.

Conclusion

Many of these players were cornerstone pieces of their college teams and are now translating those skills to the next level. Who will be the first from this group to reach “The Show”? Gallagher might be a good bet for 2026 given his torrid start, but don’t sleep on others like Parker (catchers who can hit move fast) and maybe a healthy Forcucci down the line. And of course, the story is still being written – player development is a marathon, not a sprint.

For college baseball fans, it’s rewarding to track these players you cheered for in Big West action now chasing their big-league dreams. We’ll be rooting for all of them to climb the ladder. One year down, many more to go – and perhaps the next Tanner Bibee or Shane Bieber (both Big West products) is in this 2024 cohort, on the path to MLB stardom.

Ten Players to Watch in the Big West in 2026

Ricky Ojeda, dressed in the USA National team uniform, delivers a pitch.

The Big West Conference is set to showcase a wealth of talent in 2026, including numerous draft-eligible players who could make a significant impact on the field (and even hear their names called in the MLB Draft). Here I spotlight ten players to watch closely as the new season unfolds.

Michael Crossland – OF, UC San Diego

As a sophomore in 2025, Michael Crossland established himself as one of the Big West’s premier power threats. The right-handed hitting center fielder earned First Team All-Big West honors by leading the conference with 15 home runs. He slashed .341/.435/.644 over 50 games, racking up 70 hits, 15 doubles, 44 RBIs, and 49 runs scored. His 1.079 OPS and .644 slugging percentage made him easily one of the top power hitters in the conference.

At 6-foot, 210 pounds, Crossland combines strength with surprising athleticism in the outfield. He consistently drove the ball to all fields last season and showed a knack for coming up with big hits in clutch moments. Not just a slugger, he also demonstrated patience at the plate – drawing 23 walks and even getting plunked 11 times. As the Tritons’ everyday center fielder, he provided reliable defense), showcasing good range and a strong arm. This well-rounded game made Crossland the centerpiece of UCSD’s lineup.

Looking ahead to 2026, Crossland will again be the focal point of the Tritons’ offense and a preseason Big West Player of the Year candidate. If he matches or exceeds last year’s production, he’ll firmly entrench himself in MLB scouts’ radars as a potential early-round pick. Expect more loud numbers from Crossland in 2026. His mix of power, on-base ability, and experience makes him one of the conference’s must-watch players. In a league loaded with talent, Crossland’s big bat and leadership will set the tone for UC San Diego.

Jackson Flora – RHP, UC Santa Barbara

UC Santa Barbara’s Jackson Flora has emerged from the shadow of former ace Tyler Bremner and now profiles as one of the conference’s top arms. The 6-foot-5 right-hander stepped into the Gauchos’ weekend rotation in 2025 and delivered several dominant outings – none more impressive than a complete-game one-hitter with 9 strikeouts against Cal Poly. Flora finished the season 6–3 with a 3.60 ERA, piling up 86 strikeouts against just 17 walks in 75 innings. That performance earned him an invitation to USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team camp, highlighting his rising stock as a prospect to watch.

Flora has the arsenal of a potential first-round pick. His fastball sits in the mid-to-upper 90s and reportedly touched 99–100 mph with explosive life through the zone, making it extremely hard to square up. He pairs that heat with a sweeping slider that flashes plus and can be adjusted in shape – he’s shown the ability to back-foot it to lefties or tighten it up for righties. A changeup remains a work in progress, but his electric fastball-slider combo and improved command make Flora a formidable Friday-night ace for the Gauchos. Don’t be surprised if pro scouts flock to his starts – he has first-round potential written all over him. In 2026, Flora will be expected to lead UCSB’s staff and could be the next in a line of Gaucho pitchers to make national headlines. The hype is high, and Flora has the talent to back it up.

Elijah Ickes – 3B, Hawai‘i

The 6′0″, 175-lb right-handed hitter Elijah Ickes has been a catalyst for the Hawai‘i Rainbow Warriors since he arrived on campus. As a freshman in 2024, Ickes hit .280 and drove in 32 runs, scoring 42 times out of the leadoff spot. He drew 34 walks for a .407 on-base percentage, swiped 7 bases (in 8 attempts), and cracked 12 doubles – showing a promising blend of plate discipline, speed, and gap power. In 2025 he continued to produce, batting .303 with a .387 OBP and 3 triples (a team high) in a season cut short by injury. Ickes started 31 games at shortstop and third base before missing roughly six weeks, yet still tallied 21 RBIs and remained one of the toughest outs on the team. He sprays line drives to all fields and rarely chases out of the zone, reflecting a mature approach beyond his years.

In 2026, Ickes will be counted on as a high-contact, table-setting bat atop Hawai‘i’s lineup – the spark plug who makes the offense go. His return late last season provided a huge boost: in his first game back from the injury, he smacked two doubles and drove in three runs to help Hawai‘i upset Cal State Fullerton. That kind of instant impact underscores how valuable Ickes is to the Rainbow Warriors. Defensively, he offers versatility (splitting time between short and third) and sure hands on the left side of the infield. Look for him to ignite rallies with his line-drive hitting, aggressive baserunning, and knack for extra-base hits. If Ickes can stay healthy for a full campaign, he’s a strong All-Big West candidate and the kind of veteran leader who can help Hawai‘i challenge the conference’s top teams. Don’t overlook his contributions just because he’s not a prolific home run hitter – Ickes does the little things that win games, and he could be one of the league’s most valuable players this season.

Mason Lerma – LHP, UC Davis

One bright spot for UC Davis in 2025 was the emergence of Mason Lerma as a dominant bullpen arm. Lerma, a 5’10” left-hander, put up eye-popping numbers out of the Aggies’ bullpen: a 1.01 ERA and a 3-0 record over 28 appearances. He actually led the entire Big West in pitching appearances, a testament to the trust coaches had in him to handle high-leverage situations. In 35.2 innings, Lerma allowed only 4 earned runs all year. He struck out 35 batters while issuing just 5 walks, showcasing pinpoint control to go along with some deceptive stuff. That stellar performance earned him Second Team All-Big West honors, and firmly established him as one of the conference’s toughest relievers.

Lerma isn’t a flamethrower by any means – his fastball sits in the mid-80s – but his low three-quarters delivery and natural lefty movement keep hitters off balance. He can run the fastball in on right-handers’ hands, saw them off for weak contact, and then mix in a big-breaking curveball to change speeds. Opponents hit just .256 against him, and he often entered with runners on to put out fires (hence the conference-high usage out of the ‘pen). Despite his smaller stature and modest velocity, Lerma competes with confidence and never seems rattled under pressure.

Heading into his junior year in 2026, UC Davis may consider testing Lerma as a starter, but his greatest value might remain in that fireman relief role where he can deploy his two-pitch mix with maximum effectiveness. Either way, his consistency and calm in tight spots will be crucial for the Aggies. He’s the type of veteran arm who can help UC Davis steal some wins in close games. For now, Lerma is undoubtedly one of the Big West’s most reliable relievers, and every opponent will need a solid plan to manufacture runs against him.

Steele Murdock – RHP, UC San Diego

On the pitching side for UC San Diego, Steele Murdock offers a classic case of projection and raw talent. His 2025 numbers as a redshirt freshman (5.60 ERA in 15 appearances) don’t jump off the page, but the 6-foot-2, 215-pound righty turned heads with his electric arm in summer ball. Pitching against elite competition in the Cape Cod League, Murdock routinely sat 94–96 mph with his fastball and even dialed it up to 97, showing big-time velocity. His heater also has natural arm-side run, making it tough for hitters to barrel up even when they make contact.

Murdock pairs that explosive fastball with a sharp slider in the mid-80s that has good tilt. He showed the ability to use the slider as a putaway pitch, often getting swings and misses down and away from righties. At times he can even manipulate the breaking ball to have more downward, curveball-like action, keeping hitters guessing and off-balance. While his command and consistency are still developing (not uncommon for a young power arm), the upside here is undeniable. Murdock has clear shutdown closer potential, given his arsenal and aggressive approach on the mound. In 2025, he notched one save and often worked in a swingman role, but in 2026 the Tritons could deploy him in a variety of ways. He might emerge as a high-leverage closer who can blow away hitters for an inning or two, or he could even compete for a weekend starter spot now that he’s more seasoned. If he harnesses his control, Murdock has the tools to blossom into one of the Big West’s most dominant pitchers. Keep an eye on his strikeout rates and those late-inning appearances – the fireballing righty could end up being a real game-changer for UCSD this year, and you can bet pro scouts will be watching his radar gun readings with interest.

Ricky Ojeda – LHP, UC Irvine

This undersized lefty quietly emerged as one of the conference’s best pitchers over the past two seasons. Ricky Ojeda (5′11″, 185 lbs) was a strikeout machine in 2024 as a freshman reliever, piling up 74 Ks in 52 innings with a 3.46 ERA and earning first-team All-Big West honors. In 2025, he maintained that success: he went 13–1 with a 3.55 ERA, logging 66.0 innings and recording 83 strikeouts to only 29 walks. He made 29 appearances (including a couple of spot starts) and even added a few saves to his resume. Simply put, Ojeda has been one of the Anteaters’ most dependable arms, whether coming out of the bullpen or taking the ball to start a game.

Ojeda’s stuff belies his smaller frame. His fastball sits in the low 90s and has reportedly topped out around 95–96 mph, which from the left side is plenty dangerous. He complements it with an upper-60s curveball that he isn’t afraid to throw in any count – it’s a true swing-and-miss pitch when he’s hitting his spots. Ojeda lives on the edges of the plate and isn’t prone to free passes (he averaged just about 2.2 walks per nine innings in 2025), showing above-average control to go with his strikeout ability. In short, this southpaw’s combination of command and stuff has produced big strikeout totals in back-to-back years. Heading into 2026, he’s a top-of-the-league talent on the mound and gives UC Irvine a versatile weapon. The Anteaters may slot him into the weekend rotation, where his experience closing games could translate into a bulldog mentality as a starter. If not, he’s proven he can dominate in relief. Either way, expect Ojeda to continue racking up Ks and frustrating hitters all spring. He may not have the prototype size, but he’s got everything else you’d want in an ace, and that makes him one of the Big West’s most intriguing pitchers to watch (not to mention a possible draft sleeper if his dominance continues).

Matthew Peña – 1B/DH, CSUN

A thick-framed lefty slugger at 6′0″, 220 lbs, Matthew Peña was a late-blooming power bat for the CSUN Matadors who could be primed for an even bigger 2026. As a sophomore in 2025, Peña started 35 games at first base and showed flashes of his prodigious raw power. He slugged 7 home runs (second-most on the team) and drove in 30 runs, leading the Matadors in RBIs during the regular season. Those long balls and 6 doubles came despite a modest .244 batting average – an improvement from his limited action in 2024, but leaving room for growth. Peña’s approach is still developing (he had a fairly high strikeout rate last year), but when he connects, the ball can travel a long way. He delivered seven multi-RBI games in 2025, highlighting his ability to change a game with one swing and come through with runners on base.

Going into 2026, CSUN will be counting on Peña to be a middle-of-the-order run producer and source of much-needed pop. He’s shown he can provide instant offense and drive the ball with authority to his pull side and center. The next step will be improving his consistency at the plate – if he can raise his average and cut down on the strikeouts a bit, Peña has the natural strength to threaten double-digit homers and become one of the Big West’s better power hitters. He’ll likely get plenty of chances as an everyday first baseman or DH, so the opportunity is there for a breakout junior campaign. Opposing pitchers will be careful when facing Peña with men on base, because he has the kind of bat that can put up a crooked number in a hurry. Matador fans will be hoping that his 2025 power surge was just the beginning, and that Peña can evolve into the go-to RBI man in Northridge’s lineup.

Tsubasa Tomii – RHP, Hawai‘i

An exciting new face in the Big West, Tsubasa Tomii brings a truly unique pedigree and pitching style to Hawai‘i. Tomii, a 5-foot-7 right-hander from Japan, first made headlines as a 12-year-old when he was the winning pitcher in the 2017 Little League World Series championship game. After that early fame, he continued to hone his craft in Japan – even appearing at Koshien, the nation’s famed high school tournament – before coming to the U.S. for college. He dominated at the junior college level over the past two seasons, and now he’ll join the Rainbow Warriors for 2026 as a junior. In 2025 at Pima Community College, Tomii went 5–1 with a minuscule 1.48 ERA (including a 0.95 ERA in conference play), averaging over 12 strikeouts per nine innings. His road to Division I is unconventional, but he’s proven at every step that he knows how to compete and win.

Despite standing under 5’8”, Tomii is a savvy pitcher with an arsenal of six different pitches. He features a four-seam fastball that tops out around 90–91 mph, plus a cutter, slider, curveball, changeup, and splitter. In summer ball on Cape Cod in 2025, Tomii turned heads with his crafty approach against elite hitters. He effectively pitched backwards, often starting hitters off with breaking balls and off-speed stuff. His sharp slider in the upper-70s (reportedly spinning in the 3000 RPM range) was a go-to weapon, and he could drop in a big-breaking curveball to steal strikes. Meanwhile, his fastball sat in the mid-80s during the summer but played up thanks to deception and command – hitters often found themselves late on an 85 mph heater because they were gearing up for something slower. Tomii even incorporates an extended pause in his delivery (reminiscent of Daisuke Matsuzaka’s famed hesitation move), which further disrupts hitters’ timing and adds to his funk on the mound.

All signs point to Tomii slotting into Hawai‘i’s rotation immediately in 2026. Between his international experience, deep pitch mix, and feel for sequencing, he could quickly become a fan favorite in Honolulu – not to mention an All-Big West caliber starter. He’s not the type of pitcher who will light up the radar gun, but Tomii knows how to get outs against high-level competition, and he brings an intensity and savvy that’s infectious to his team. He’ll be a fascinating player to watch this season, as fans will get to see a very different style of pitching than the flame-throwers who typically grab headlines. If he lives up to the hype and adapts quickly to Division I hitters, Tsubasa Tomii could end up as one of the best stories in the Big West in 2026.

Cole Tryba – LHP, UC Santa Barbara

If Jackson Flora is the headliner of UCSB’s pitching staff, fellow Gaucho Cole Tryba might be the unsung hero who holds it all together. Tryba was lights-out in relief last season, emerging as one of the most effective bullpen arms in the conference. The 6’0”, 185-pound left-hander posted a 3.48 ERA and struck out 46 batters to only 12 walks over 31 innings. He even notched six saves as the closer down the stretch. Tryba isn’t physically imposing, but he brings an explosive, high-effort delivery and big-time stuff that plays up in short stints. His fastball operates in the low 90s with plenty of arm-side run, and he isn’t afraid to challenge hitters inside. But his best weapon is a sweeping slider in the upper-70s to low-80s that has plus bite and depth – hitters had a hard time squaring it up when he was on his game. He also mixes in a changeup that can tumble away from righties, giving him a viable third pitch even though he primarily worked out of the bullpen.

UC Santa Barbara relied on Tryba in numerous high-leverage situations, and he delivered time after time. With a reputation as a strike-thrower and the ability to miss bats, he provided a crucial bridge to the later innings alongside Flora’s dominance in the rotation. For 2026, Tryba could take on an even larger role – perhaps continuing as a bullpen ace or even getting a look in the rotation if needed. He was arguably the most underrated arm on a loaded UCSB staff last year, but expect him to get more recognition this spring as people realize his value. His combination of experience, swing-and-miss stuff, and poise under pressure makes Tryba a name to know. Plus, as a lefty who can touch the low 90s and spin a nasty slider, he’s on pro scouts’ radar as well. Don’t be surprised if he’s racking up saves again or stepping into any role the Gauchos need. Tryba is the kind of versatile, high-quality arm that championship-caliber teams lean on.

Andrew Wright – LHP, Cal State Fullerton

Cal State Fullerton’s rich pitching tradition has another rising star in Andrew Wright. The 6′1″ sophomore took on closing duties in 2025 and thrived, and now he’ll be a junior poised for even bigger things. Wright recorded 10 saves (the most for a Titans pitcher since 2018) while striking out 49 batters in 41.1 innings and posting a 2.40 ERA. He became Fullerton’s go-to arm in late-game situations, converting 13 of 15 save opportunities, and along the way he earned a Big West Pitcher of the Week honor and First Team All-Big West recognition. In short, Wright proved he could handle pressure and anchor the bullpen for a team with championship aspirations.

Wright attacks hitters with a lethal fastball-curveball combination. His fastball sits in the mid-90s from the left side, which alone makes him a tough matchup for opponents, and he complements it with a tight, biting curve that he uses as an out-pitch. That one-two punch helped him dominate both righties and lefties last year – he was equally confident throwing inside to right-handed bats or snapping off a curve to lefties for a swinging strike. What sets Wright apart, too, is his composure and command; he pounds the strike zone (just 2.6 BB/9 in 2025) and doesn’t shy away from attacking hitters even in high-pressure spots. The Titans trusted him with the ball in one-run games, and he rewarded that trust time and again.

Looking to 2026, Fullerton has the luxury of deciding how to deploy Wright’s talents. Will he remain the shut-down closer at the back end of the bullpen, or transition into a weekend starter role? His repertoire and poise suggest he could excel in either capacity. As a closer, he’s a proven finisher who gives the Titans a huge advantage in any game they’re leading after the 7th inning. As a starter, his stuff and control could translate into ace-like performance over longer outings. Either way, Wright will be a linchpin for Fullerton’s pitching staff. With the Titans eyeing a return to regional and Omaha contention, having a lefty of Wright’s caliber is a big asset. He’s also now on the radar of MLB scouts – mid-90s velocity from the left side with a hammer curve is the kind of profile that garners serious pro interest. Expect Wright to continue building on his breakout season; whether it’s closing the door on Fridays and Saturdays or setting the tone as a starter, he’s one of the Big West’s elite arms and absolutely a player to watch in 2026.

Featured

Welcome to Big West Dugout

Your fan-powered home for Big West Conference baseball.

This site started back in 2021 when three friends (including me) started reviewing college draft prospects just for fun. We weren’t scouts or insiders — just a few guys who loved the game and wanted to see who might be next.

Over time, life got busy and the other two moved on. I kept writing. I’m based in Southern California, so narrowing the focus to Big West baseball just made sense. It’s local, competitive, and full of underrated talent.

I’m not a reporter. I don’t have behind-the-scenes access. I’m just a guy who loves watching these teams grind it out, tracking player development, and sharing what I see.

Here at Big West Dugout, you’ll find:

Draft prospect notes and watchlists
Team trends and player spotlights
Weekend thoughts, stats, and scouting blurbs

It’s all written from the bleachers, not the press box.

If you’re a fan, a player, a player’s family member, or just someone who appreciates college baseball with grit, I think you’ll feel at home here.

Thanks for stopping by the dugout.

The auction that isn’t an auction

How MLB’s slot system masks the curse

High‑school tools and projectability

College arms and the illusion of safety

The consensus top‑three problem

Case studies: cautionary tales and near misses

Quantifying the curse: expected value curves

Why smart people still fall for it

How teams can break the curse

Conclusion: Accepting uncertainty, embracing humility

Player Profile

Pitch Arsenal

Mechanics and Deception

Outlook for 2026

Projection

Player Profile

Projection

Player Profile

Projection

Player Profile

Projection

Welcome to Big West Baseball

2025 Season Snapshot

Big West Playoff & NCAA Tournament Format

Why Big West Dugout?

Big West in the Pros

Suggested Reading

Get Involved

Logan Georges (Clovis HS, RHP, TCU commit)

Logan Schmidt (Ganesha HS, LHP, uncommitted)

Gary Morse (Orange Lutheran HS, RHP, Tennessee commit)

Cooper Sides (Orange Lutheran HS, RHP, LSU commit)

Cal Poly Mustangs

Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners

Cal State Fullerton Titans

Long Beach State Dirtbags

UC Irvine Anteaters

UC San Diego Tritons

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Cal State Northridge

Conclusion

Michael Crossland – OF, UC San Diego

Jackson Flora – RHP, UC Santa Barbara

Elijah Ickes – 3B, Hawai‘i

Mason Lerma – LHP, UC Davis

Steele Murdock – RHP, UC San Diego

Ricky Ojeda – LHP, UC Irvine

Matthew Peña – 1B/DH, CSUN

Tsubasa Tomii – RHP, Hawai‘i

Cole Tryba – LHP, UC Santa Barbara

Andrew Wright – LHP, Cal State Fullerton